Friday, May 17, 2013

The State of Patriots' Nation, Part 2: The return of Brady's favorite receiver

"Journalism is a low trade and habit worse than heroin.”

The sagacious Dr. Thompson knew the heart of journalism, often quoted as calling sportswriters misfits and clowns and fools - the hired help.  He was an Oakland Raiders' fan, a friend of John Madden.  Al Davis didn't trust him but Richard Nixon did, and together they would spend hours talking professional football.
Amendola's injury history is a concern with fans and the media

It was the middle of 70's, a time when a "Balanced" offense was a 65/35 split between running and passing, but players like Cliff Branch and Fred Blitnikoff and Dave Casper piqued his interest.  He saw these players and the Raiders as a whole as the trend setters of the time and saw the growing importance of the passing game - and the defending of such.

He was avid, such a fan of the concept and fundamentals of football that he was said to write his best pieces in complete despair of football season ending each February.  He learned from Madden and from Davis and even from Nixon - his writing capturing not the score nor the stats nor the money, but the essence...

...which makes me wonder what he'd have written when Wes Welker decided to cut his losses and sign with the Denver Broncos in March.  Probably, he would have seen it as inevitable - the result of free agency mixed with bad advice from money hungry agents.

For sure, the reaction from Patriots' Nation was immediate and terse, but not everyone felt the same and the issue plunged the nation into a fervid "he said/she said" debate that was fueled by media speculation.

It got so bad that the normally reserved team owner Robert Kraft addressed the "Welker issue" at a candid impromptu breakfast presser in which he chided the press for blowing things out of proportion and Welker's agent for lying about how things really went down.

Well, yeah.  Isn't that what the press and sports agents do?

Kraft and coach Bill Belichick have little tolerance for either, and since the Patriots losing Welker to the Broncos was all the journalists seemed to want to talk about, Kraft thought he'd give them their money's worth, then turned the floor over to Belichick, which was like throwing meat to a wolf.

Bottom line is that the Patriots do things the way they do them.  They manage the roster, draft and coach the way they see fit, and it's worked out pretty well for the most part - but after last season's patch job in the receiving corps got them to the AFC Championship game for the second year in a row, many fans and media members were wondering openly why Belichick would let Welker fly.

And the answer is simply because it didn't work

In the biggest of situations, where the light shined the brightest and the stage and the moment were larger than life itself, it just didn't work.

This is an intangible, something that can't be measured within the mathematical framework of statistics. Belichick had spent his entire tenure since attrition and Brady's torn knee-guts robbed the team of it's identity - and he has retooled every position on the field except receiver...and it was time to try it again.

In 2007, Belichick's attempt to retool the receivers brought in Randy Moss to give the Patriots a big time vertical threat.  That worked like a charm until the lights got bright, then it failed.  Of course, the move to bring in Moss and Brady's reliance on him were only part of the reason why 19-0 turned into 18-1, but it was a lesson learned for Belichick.

The same season he also brought in Welker and the diminutive slot master quickly replaced "The open receiver" as Brady's favorite target.  That also worked well until the moment was biggest - and in subsequent years the trophy slipped through the connection and wobbled to a stop on the turf. 

Three AFC Title games and two Super Bowls and still no trophy.  In fact, two epic failures on the part of the Brady/Welker connection had much to do with those Lombardi trophies ending up elsewhere...

So just as Moss got run out of town, so did Welker - but under the guise of bad timing coupled with bad advice, all the while with former St. Louis Rams' receiver Danny Amendola hunkered down at an undisclosed location in Boston, waiting for the Welker thing to unfold before he and the team made their move.

A lot of the renewed vigor surrounding the hate is due to the turnover at the receiver position, as last year's dynamic duo of Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd are now either unemployed or may as well be, and many are concerned that the production from those spots will decline with the influx of new players...

...and who's to say, really?  If the yardage and number of catches and yards after the catch indeed decline, yet Kraft is up on the podium with a death grip on the team's 4th Lombardi with a team built for two or three more, what do stats matter?

This is where most of the experts climb aboard the Bandwagon of Hate, where they see that the almighty Welker is gone, yet they are blind to the fact that the team still has Tom Brady, and the only thing that has changed is Welker's mailing address.  Brady will find the open receiver, and his options may be among the most plentiful in the NFL, when including the athletic and monstrous tight ends.

And despite attempts by reasonable people to stem the tide of comparing Danny Amendola to Welker, the comparisons persist - the most common of which is between their injury history but that, too, is a fraud...

...the stupid and wrong health questions hanging around Amendola's neck like an albatross due to the media fabrication.   True, Welker is durable, about that there is no doubt.   Dude takes vicious hits and pops right back up. Crazy. There will never be another Wes Welker.  But while it is true that Amendola has missed significant time the past couple of years, it is also true that he hasn't been any more dinged up than Welker, just a victim of bad timing in that regard. 

Both have suffered season ending injuries, Welker tore his ACL and MCL in the final game of the 2009 season, missing the teams' loss to the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round.  He had also missed two games earlier in the year with a knee injury - while Amendola suffered a dislocated elbow at the start of the 2010 season, and missed 15 games.  Last season, he suffered a dislocated clavicle, for which he missed just three games despite coming very close to the bone severing his aorta. 

If my math is correct, that adds up to nearly an even draw, though Amendola's injury history is more recent, which tends to bring more stigma to them. 

Weak argument...next?

With Amendola being a lock to make the roster, there remains three - perhaps four - spots up for grabs, with any one of the contenders capable of helping Patriots' fans forget all about Brandon Lloyd.  Draft Pick Aaron Dobson is a large quick target with incredible hands and body control.  Josh Boyce is a speedster that could become a change of pace guy and someone who could stretch the field, particularly in a 23 personnel alignment.

"Molasses" Mike Jenkins will compete for backup snaps behind Dobson, as will former Buffalo Bills wide out Donald Jones.  Julien Edelman will be in a fight to secure a roster spot behind Amendola.  There are a couple of more players in the mix for backup snaps, T.J. Moe comes to mind, but the fact is that there are capable young options to choose from, where last season there was - um - Deion Branch and Dante Stallworth...

...sure doesn't sound like a downgraded roster to me, and when you stop to consider that these wide receivers are not even going to be Brady's primary targets, you should begin to see that anyone who tells you that the Patriots are in dire straits with their receivers just don't know what they're talking about...

...Just like a junkie.


Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Patriots continue purge, cut defensive tackle Love

As Kyle Love saw his snap totals decrease towards the end of last season, he had to have taken it as a little writing on the proverbial wall.  So when the Patriots released the man who took his snaps a couple of days ago, he should have taken that as a sign to pack his bags...

Love was released by the team on Wednesday with a non-football injury designation, presumably in response to the 3rd year defensive tackle recently being diagnosed with Type 2 Diabetes.

Brandon Deaderick, the main beneficiary of the coaching staff limiting Love's playing time late last season was cut by the team on Monday and landed on the Jacksonville Jaguars roster within a matter of hours.

The sometimes unfeeling business side of professional football aside, releasing the two defensive tackles leave the position very thin if the Patriots retain the 4-3 alignment as their base defense - and with options on the open market slim by this point in free agency, one has to assume that a change in base alignment to either a 3-4 or 3-3-5 may be in the works.

Vince Wilfork still anchors the bigs, with newcomers Armond Armstead of CFL fame and Tommy Kelly formerly of the Raiders in the mix as penetrators.  Marcus Forston and Jermaine Cunningham were also used as a penetrating tackles extensively last season, though Cunningham is listed as a defensive end.

With the secondary well stocked and the linebacking corps loaded, the stage is set for some big happenings with the defense - and it will be interesting to see how this defensive line evolves - whichever way it goes, the look is to be all about speed and lean versatility.

State of the Patriots' Nation, Part 1: Addressing the Hate

When the New England Patriots' Bandwagon of Hate leaves the station in early September it's gonna be full - as always.  They've even added a press car.

But this year, with all of the questions and injury concerns, attrition and a draft that confused many, scores of journalists and gleeful football enthusiasts who believe that the Patriots time as rulers of the AFC East and subsequent contenders for a title has truly come to an end are jumping on that bandwagon...

...and that's ok.  Sports journalists realize that their shelf life is only secure as long as they stay in the median, venturing out into traffic only to spew their bile of negativity to conform to - and at times to become the talisman for - public opinion. 

So when Tom Brady gets old and the Patriots experience some turnover and their draft produces depth instead of instant starters, it's common for the press to merge into mainstream traffic and start trashing the Pats.

But an interesting thing happens when you start to doubt Bill Belichick.  Anxiety creeps up on you, realizing even as you speak or write for public record that there is every chance that Belichick is going to pull another rabbit out of his hoodie and make you look like a fool...

...in which case your smooth merge into mainstream traffic turns into a nightmare of swerving into oncoming traffic and getting squashed like a roach by the Belichick steamroller.  And the people who believed your swill from the start will start to doubt you - that is, until you explain that football prognostication is not an exact science and, besides, you're dealing with the most volatile soul in all of sports.

And then people will believe you again, because Belichick is secretive and a known non-conformist who befriends jaded, washed up rock stars and whose idea of letting his hair down is sitting on his boat with his girlfriend and posting random cryptic tweets while the cabin boy gently handles the gin and meticulously stuffs imported greek olives with fresh-roasted pimentos.

Ah, madness. Where have you been hiding?  I have so missed your quality delusions - but now that we are approaching the start of Organized Team Activities, it is time to shake the cobwebs and take an objective, realistic view at how the Patriots look in relation to the curve, using the negativity of the hired help as a base from which to proceed...

...because all they can be sure of is that there will be 11 guys on defense, 11 guys on offense with AARP members Tom Brady and Bill Belichick running the show when the opening whistle blows - other than that, there are no guarantees.  And that kind of ambiguity scares folks who rely on things staying the same, never changing, never evolving....

And it's not like things will be changing that much anyway, despite the turnover at the receiver positions, because that's all that's really changed.  Besides Brandon Lloyd and Wes Welker, every single starter in the AFC Title game is back, and while many in both the media and around the water cooler point to Welker's defection as the death nail for the Patriots' coffin, the simple fact of the matter is that the worst that will happen is that Brady will have to go back to his mantra of his favorite receiver being "The Open Receiver", instead of being locked in on Welker...

...and that subject alone deserves it's own headline, which it will get as part of this nine part examination of the New England Patriots and their detractors in this 2013 offseason, the series entitled "Addressing the Hate", where fact will battle fiction, stats will be thrown out the window and we go mano-a-mano with the haters.

And we'll begin on Thursday by tackling the receivers, so to speak, provided we can catch the speedy little buggers...

Thursday, May 9, 2013

Patriots sign Hawkins, now have 12 receivers under contract

The New England Patriots on Thursday announced the signing of former Tennessee Titans wide receiver Lavell Hawkins to a two year deal.

The fifth year receiver was used sparingly in Tennessee's offense and projects as a slot receiver for the Patriots provided he makes it out of camp with a roster spot, which could be directly tied to his special teams contribution, as Hawkins is a bit of a punt return threat.

Hawkins is 5' 11" and around 195 pounds, and was known primarily for his speed coming out of Cal, and ended up being the Titans' 4th round pick of the Titans in 2008. 

Hawkins' signing brings the number of receivers on the 90 man offseason roster to an even dozen - of which they will keep perhaps five, and with new addition Danny Amendola a lock to make the roster along with special teams ace Matthew Slater, that leaves essentially three roster spots open for ten guys to fight for. 

The Patriots drafted Marshall's Aaron Dobson and TCU's Josh Boyce and brought in free agents Michael Jenkins and Donald Jones, and also signed some undrafted free agent receivers, T.J. Moe being one...

...point being, this camp competition is going to be fun to watch, and no matter who makes the roster, with the talent competing, the Patriots win.

Tuesday, May 7, 2013

Edelman hobbled again, OTA participation in question

Julian Edelman's off season of horrors just took another turn towards ambiguity.

The Boston Globe reports that the fifth year wide receiver out of Kent State has been seen wearing a walking boot, and that his status for upcoming Organized Team Activities is in question.

Edelman reportedly broke a bone in his right foot in the Patriots' December 2nd game against the Miami Dolphins and was subsequently placed on the season-ending IR a few days later.  The report of this setback brings more clarity to the reason why Edelman received virtually no interest in free agency this offseason.

Edelman signed a one year deal to return to the Patriots in early April.

OTA's are scheduled to begin on May 20th and running through June 7th, then mandatory mini camp begins four days later - and Edelman's status is up in the air for both.  The report states that he should be fine for the season, though the paper did not state how that status was determined.

Edelman is expected to compete for a backup role in what promises to be an entertaining training camp, with Edelman being the only returning pure receiver from last season.

Monday, May 6, 2013

State of the Patriots' Nation: Projected 53 man Roster

The draft is done and training camp is two and a half months off...and that sucks.

On the flip side, it gives all of us twice the time that Jesus had in the wild alone with his thoughts, and the damnable game of football taunting us and tempting us on top of it.  But we have things that Jesus didn't.
Logan Ryan has a great opportunity ahead of him at corner

Food, for one, and we have the Red Sox to distract our attention from the long NFL off-season.  Hell we even have the Celtics and Bruins playoff runs to occupy our time, so if Jesus can pull of 40 days in the woods fighting off temptation, surely we can endure twice that long fighting off boredom.

But for those obsessive / compulsive few of us that stem on the game of football, these "Dog days" of spring taunts us and tempt us.  We pretend to care what the other Boston teams are doing but, out of sheer due diligence, we can name the starting lineups for all teams in addition to save and power play percentages for the hockey perverts and ERA's and batting averages for the Boys of Summer.

And the hours and days that we spent diligently looking at film and going blind on scouting reports before the draft and for the draft - which turned out to be it's usual crap-shoot in trying to figure out what Bill Belichick is thinking - can still be put to good use...

...in something as useless as trying to project the opening day 53 man New England Patriots roster - an exercise in futility, but here it is, for good or ill:

Quarterbacks (2):

Tom Brady
Ryan Mallett 

Not much drama here.  Mike Kafka was in consideration for backup duties due to his slight game experience edge over Mallett, but Mallett's upside is such that Kafka would have a tremendous camp to unseat the incumbent.

Running Backs (4):

Stevan Ridley
LeGarrette Blount
Shane Vereen
Leon Washington (ST)

Letting Danny Woodhead go in free agency was disappointing, but also gives us a hint as to which way the offense is gravitating, particularly in light of picking up Blount on a draft day trade with Tampa.  The odd man out is Brandon Bolden, who loses out to Leon Washinton due to special teams prowess...and is the one move that Bill Belichick has made this offseason that I question - why bring in another one-dimensional guy just to play special teams?  This could also potentially impact Nate Ebner's spot on the roster as well, though he is a core special teamer.

Wide Receivers (6):

Danny Amendola
Aaron Dobson
Julien Edelman
Josh Boyce
Donald Jones
Matthew Slater (ST)

The only rookie to crack the Day 1 opening roster will be Aaron Dobson, pretty much by default though he will have to beat out a couple of veterans along the way.  Boyce could have an immediate impact in spread formations.

Tight Ends (5)

Rob Gronkowski
Aaron Hernandez
Jake Ballard
Michael Hoomanawanui
Zach Sudfeld

Sudfeld, the undrafted free agent Tight End out of Nevada makes the squad as a huge (6'7"), athletic target to back up the big three.  Hoomanawanui makes the team as an inline blocker and impromptu fullback.

Offensive Tackles (3)

Nate Solder
Sebastian Vollmer
Will Svitek

No surprises here, as one of the best set of bookend tackles in the NFL have their positions locked down.  Sviteck is a versatile swing tackle that can back up both positions, and Marcus Cannon can slide outside from right guard to back up Vollmer as well.


Offensive Guards (4)

Logan Mankins
Marcus Cannon
Dan Connolly
Nick McDonald

It is time for Marcus Cannon to take the next step in his development and assume the starting right guard spot.  Connolly and McDonald are seasoned reserves and can both play all three interior line positions.

Center (1)

Ryan Wendell

More than competent, Wendell is entering a contract year as will be playing lights out.  Reserve Center is not an issue, though they are both listed at guards.  Connolly and McDonald are capable.

Defensive End (5)

Chandler Jones
Rob Ninkovich
Justin Francis
Jermaine Cunningham
Jake Bequette

Am area of concern if the Patriots remain at 4-3 for their base.  Other than Francis, none of the others have shown consistency, though Cunningham was having a nice season before being caught doping and suspended.  Both he and Bequette are squarely on the bubble, as Michael Buchanan and Jason Vega wait on the practice squad...

Defensive Tackle (5)

Vince Wilfork
Tommy Kelly
Armond Armstead
Brandon Deaderick
Kyle Love

An area of tremendous depth, should the team return to it's 3-4 roots or maintain a 3-3-5 big nickle.  All of the tackles are tried and proven, with Kelly and Armstead having the capability to penetrate.  Wilfork, Deaderick and Love are maulers that are capable of re-establishing the line of scrimmage in the opponent's backfield.

Linebackers (6)

Jerod Mayo
Brandon Spikes
Dont'a Hightower
Jamie Collins
Dane Fletcher
Steve Beauharnais

All three reserves are better in pass coverage than the starters, while Hightower and Collins could find themselves in the mix at Defensive end at times and Beauharnais is more of a strong safety than an inside linebacker but is a playmaker that could prove to be to versatile to bring off the field, particularly on passing downs.

Cornerbacks (5)

Aqib Talib
Alfonzo Dennard
Kyle Arrington
Logan Ryan
Ras-I Dowling

How good does anyone feel about Dowling's chances of staying healthy for at least half of the season?  The starters are solid, the slot is manned and the draft produced a solid depth option in the event that things are played straight up, but a contribution from Dowling will enable the secondary to blossom.  This is the best group of corners the Patriots have started the season with since, yes, the championship years.

Safeties (4)

Devin McCourty
Tavon Wilson
Adrian Wilson
Duron Harmon

This is a group that can play as physical as you want, but also will be decent over the top.  Steve Gregory should be in the mix right up until final cuts, but ultimately won't be able to do enough to keep his roster spot.  Harmon is a hybrid that will be able to play at either safety spot or in the nickle or dime as a linebacker.

Specialists (3)

Zoltan Mesko (P)
Steven Gostkowski (K)
Aiken (LS)

Practice squad (7)

Nate Ebner (SS)
T. J. Moe (WR)
Matt Stankiewitch (C/G)
Jason Vega (DE)
Michael Buchanan (DE)
Markus Zusevics (T)
Niko Koutouvides (LB)

Tuesday, April 30, 2013

New England Patriots on Paper: About Blount, bluntly...

When your sole claim to fame is cold-cocking an opponent after a college football game,  it's a tough thing to separate yourself from and it's something that tends to follow you around.

But when you start to follow it around is where you start to have real problems...

...because when a reputation precedes you, you are at a disadvantage before you even get where you're going, and you're going to have to work twice as hard just to be accepted.

That's what's facing new Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount as he attempts to resurrect a short career that dwindled to just about nothing when the Schiano regime took over in Tampa Bay.  Affected by the drafting of Boise State running back Doug Martin and under-used in Schiano's system, the emotional Blount and the rest of the Buccaneers shut it down as they skidded to full stop in last season's second half.

What does that say about Bill Belichick's good buddy down in Tampa that his team essentially quit on him down the stretch?  Not that any of us should care, except for the fact that it was the whole team and not just Blount - who really had no choice anyway as Schiano used him very sparingly for which he was openly questioned about such by the media...

...but, as mentioned, that's not our concern.  The question that Patriots fans need to ask themselves is if we are going to welcome the man or ostracise him from the get-go?

Speculation as to how he fits into the offense is as varied as the opinions as to whether he even makes the roster - though anyone who thinks Belichick gave away Jeff Demps and a 7th round draft pick just to kick the tires on Blount is delusional.  Belichick gives nothing away.  He feels that he got good value in the trade, which sent the wishy-washy world class sprinter Demps to the Buccaneers.

But to properly evaluate what Blount's role might be on the team, prudence dictates that we take the entire depth chart into account.

Some take the stance that since the Patriots were one of the best rushing teams in the NFL last season, why fix something that isn't broken - a valid point, but there are still others that believe that if you're not trying to improve, then you are in decline - and Bill Belichick is not in that business.

At his best, Blount is a bruising power back with serious balance and athleticism with lateral suddenness and highlight reel moves for the milk drinkers and a serious stiff arm for the whiskey crowd, capable of long gainers once in the open field - reaching top speed very quickly and having the solid base that corners bounce off of.

At his worst, we get a violent and intimidating competitor who sometimes takes himself a little too seriously...and you're going to have to look pretty hard for a true football fan who has a problem with that.

Either way, the Patriots get a back that had first round talent coming out of the University of Oregon, but went undrafted because he punched Boise State defensive end Byron Hout after Hout precipitated the incident by taunting Blount repeatedly during the game and immediately afterward.  The Patriots get a guy that took it upon himself to work towards guidelines that coach Chip Kelly had set for his return to the team, and eventually earned his way back onto the team.

The Patriots get a guy that Jeff Fisher took a chance on but had to cut to make room for a linebacker that they had traded for, and would have ended up on their practice squad had the Buccaneers not claimed him off waivers - and who became just the second undrafted free agent rookie in league history to rush for 1,000 yards in a season, and did it playing in 13 games, starting ten.

I shudder to think of what it would be like to be a linebacker for the opposing team late in the game and in need of a stop on 3rd and 3, look into the backfield and see a two back set featuring Blount and Ridley behind perhaps the best offensive line in the NFL - Brady under center, winking at the "Mike" as if to say, "Here we come, now try and stop us"...

...which is ridiculous, but it's a nice thought, right?  Because even if they do guess right as to who's getting the ball and where he's headed, the up-back is already in the hole with a can opener...the point is that, bluntly, Blount is in New England to give the Patriots the big bruising back they haven't had since the Championship days...

...but he's not Corey Dillon.  He's not Antowain Smith either.   He's LeGarrette Blount.  He's the guy that Chip Kelly suspended for punching out the Boise State player, then reinstated him because he had accomplished every goal given him to return to the team.  He's the guy that got in a fight in Titan's training camp, then went up to then coach Jeff Fisher to apologize, knowing that his reputation preceded him...

..."He apologized, and I said he didn't have to apologize," Fisher said. "It's football. It's training camp." "His past is his past. Is that the first punch you've seen in camp this year? No. I'm not disappointed whatsoever. I have great confidence in the young man that he learned from his mistake, and he's very competitive. That's why we brought him in here is to watch him run the football like that," Fisher said.

And that's what Belichick sent Jeff Demps and a 7th round pick to Schiano for, to watch Blount run the football for the Patriots with that kind of attitude.

You don't hear anything about a guy like Blount doing well because fans don't give up their opinions quickly and because the media will never let them forget.  Blount most assuredly made his own metaphoric bed, and had to sleep in it...

...then got up, and went to work.  And if Patriots' fans give the man a chance, he could be making his bed in Foxboro and sleep in it for real...for a long time.